Six Big Energy & Infrastructure Questions for 2026
In 2026, the conversation around energy and infrastructure is not centered on whether the market still exists. It is centered on how the market is evolving. The One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3) changed the landscape, but it did not eliminate demand for renewable energy, tax equity or tax credit investing.
Kevin Haley, SVP of Investments at Foss & Company, answers six of the biggest questions shaping energy and infrastructure in 2026. His perspective highlights how the market is adjusting to new rules, new timelines and new sources of opportunity across energy, infrastructure and historic preservation in 2026.
1. Does America still need renewable energy?
Yes. America still needs renewable energy. Data centers and AI growth continue to increase demand. Cost curves are still coming down. There is also a bottleneck in traditional energy infrastructure, including delays in gas turbine delivery. Federal policy is still largely supportive of clean energy infrastructure growth.
2. Did the One Big Beautiful Bill (OB3) kill the clean energy industry?
No, OB3 introduced a managed ramp down to certain clean energy incentives, especially wind and solar. OB3 sought to provide stability by creating rules for tax credit financing that the market can predict and adapt to.
OB3 enhanced certain credits, such as the 45Z credit, which has proven to be very popular with corporate taxpayers who are buyers of these transferable tax credits.
The market is working through the new complexities of OB3. That includes updating commercial terms, adding a premium to legacy credits that are not exposed to foreign entity of concern (FEOC) provisions, adding a premium to larger, creditworthy and investment-grade sellers who can fully backstop the credits they are selling and creating new insurance products to cover new risks.
3. Are other tax equity programs still viable?
Yes. The Section 47 Historic Tax Credit, or HTC, continues to be an attractive program. It has supported rehabilitation of historic real estate across the country since the 1970s and OB3 did not change the HTC program. HTCs deliver both federal and state benefits, including offsetting state income tax, state premium tax and more. Further, HTCs have flexibility built in. They can be smaller deals taken ratably over five years, allowing taxpayers to collect strips of tax credits in manageable sizes.
HTCs may also frequently generate stronger returns than renewable energy deals. HTC projects can be an attractive addition to corporate social responsibility programs because they create tangible community revitalization benefits.
4. What will happen to wind and solar?
In the near term, more tax credits are anticipated to be available in 2026 and 2027 as developers pull projects forward to ensure they qualify for credits and use start of construction strategies to safe harbor credits.
In the medium term, the availability of technology-neutral 48E and 45Y tax credits attributed to wind and solar projects may start to contract as eligible projects start to run out from 2028 to 2030.
In the long term, changes in the political environment will factor into credit availability for wind and solar. Democrats in Congress have already signaled a desire to reinstate the tax credits for wind and solar. Even if the supply of wind and solar credits becomes constrained, other technologies are expected to generate billions of dollars of credits. That includes the ITC for standalone battery storage, the 45Q carbon capture and sequestration credit, and the 45Z clean fuels credit.
5. Is tax equity still important for energy projects, or has everyone moved to transferability?
Tax equity is still in high demand in the clean energy industry. Tax equity investors can often command greater returns than transfer credits by monetizing operating losses and capturing a portion of project cash flows. ITC-based projects that can attract tax equity investments can also generate basis step-ups that enhance the value of the project, while transfer-only projects cannot.
Transferable tax credits and tax equity tax credits are identical from a technical standpoint. The investment process, accounting treatment and operating risk differ, but familiarity with transferable tax credits gives investors a strong familiarity with tax equity deals. Hybrid tax equity structures can be attractive solutions to investors and sponsors and allow for more flexible treatment of the tax credits themselves, including retaining them or selling them to a third party.
6. How does new capital come into the market in 2026?
Corporate taxpayers who want to start a tax credit program at their company have several options. State certificates are usually very low risk, available in more than 20 states through Foss & Company, often have no recapture risk, and are obtained with a simple purchase agreement to offset income tax, bank franchise tax and insurance premium tax on a state-by-state basis.
Transferable renewable energy credits have simple tax treatments, are obtained with a purchase and sale agreement, and can be risk-managed through tax insurance or investment-grade guarantors. Tax equity investments can offer higher returns relative to state certificates and transfer credits. Investment funds managed by third-party fiduciaries like Foss & Company provide bandwidth to internal tax teams, with significant controls in place for investors to mitigate risk. More corporate investors than ever are participating in tax credits in 2026.
To learn how Foss & Company can help you navigate opportunities in solar, storage, historic preservation and other tax credit investments in 2026, contact our team.